The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract In this article, we propose a framework to tackle conflict prevention, an issue which has received interest in several policy areas. A key challenge of forecasting for prevention is that outbreaks previously peaceful countries are rare events and therefore hard predict. To make progress problem, project summarizes more than four million newspaper articles using topic model. The topics then fed into random forest predict risk, integrated simple static decision maker decides on the optimal number interventions minimize total cost intervention. According stylized model, savings compared not intervening pre-conflict over US$1 trillion even with relatively ineffective US$13 effective interventions.
منابع مشابه
the algorithm for solving the inverse numerical range problem
برد عددی ماتریس مربعی a را با w(a) نشان داده و به این صورت تعریف می کنیم w(a)={x8ax:x ?s1} ، که در آن s1 گوی واحد است. در سال 2009، راسل کاردن مساله برد عددی معکوس را به این صورت مطرح کرده است : برای نقطه z?w(a)، بردار x?s1 را به گونه ای می یابیم که z=x*ax، در این پایان نامه ، الگوریتمی برای حل مساله برد عددی معکوس ارانه می دهیم.
15 صفحه اولthe problem of divine hiddenness
این رساله به مساله احتجاب الهی و مشکلات برهان مبتنی بر این مساله میپردازد. مساله احتجاب الهی مساله ای به قدمت ادیان است که به طور خاصی در مورد ادیان ابراهیمی اهمیت پیدا میکند. در ادیان ابراهیمی با توجه به تعالی خداوند و در عین حال خالقیت و حضور او و سخن گفتن و ارتباط شهودی او با بعضی از انسانهای ساکن زمین مساله ای پدید میاید با پرسشهایی از قبیل اینکه چرا ارتباط مستقیم ویا حداقل ارتباط وافی به ب...
15 صفحه اولstudy of cohesive devices in the textbook of english for the students of apsychology by rastegarpour
this study investigates the cohesive devices used in the textbook of english for the students of psychology. the research questions and hypotheses in the present study are based on what frequency and distribution of grammatical and lexical cohesive devices are. then, to answer the questions all grammatical and lexical cohesive devices in reading comprehension passages from 6 units of 21units th...
the use of appropriate madm model for ranking the vendors of mci equipments using fuzzy approach
abstract nowadays, the science of decision making has been paid to more attention due to the complexity of the problems of suppliers selection. as known, one of the efficient tools in economic and human resources development is the extension of communication networks in developing countries. so, the proper selection of suppliers of tc equipments is of concern very much. in this study, a ...
15 صفحه اولfacilitating lexical access for the fluent production of speech
the hypothesis is that recent and frequent exposure to lexical items leads to a more fluent production of speech in terms of rate of speech. to test the hypothesis , a one- way anova experimental design was carried out. 24 senior student of efl participated in a one-way interview test. data analyses revealed that those who were exposed frequently to the lexical items over a week prior to inte...
15 صفحه اولذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of the European Economic Association
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1542-4766', '1542-4774']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac025